The US Federal Reserve ends its two-day meeting today, Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and announces its interest rate decision at 2:00 pm New York time (18:00 GMT). Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press conference half an hour later.
Markets have largely made up their minds about today: almost everyone expects the Fed to leave rates unchanged. What traders really want to know is what comes next.
Key facts
- Current rate: the federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4.00%.
- Last move: on September 16, the Fed raised rates by 0.25 percentage points, its first hike since 2023. The vote was unanimous (12–0), and the Fed said inflation “remains elevated”.
- Expectations for today: futures markets price roughly a 90% or higher chance of a hold. Prediction market Kalshi showed about 93% for no change.
- Why the pressure is still there: inflation picked up again in September, while job growth has slowed sharply.
- Next meeting: December 8–9, with the decision on December 9. Many economists expect another hike there.
What to watch tonight
- The statement. Any change in how the Fed describes inflation or the job market is read as a signal for December.
- The vote. Any votes against a hold would show how divided the committee is about what to do next.
- Warsh’s press conference. Warsh has said he prefers not to give “forward guidance” or pre-announce future moves, so markets will hang on every word for clues.
What it means for crypto
Bitcoin traded just under $81,000 this morning, after briefly slipping below $80,000 earlier in the week. Higher interest rates tend to pull money away from riskier assets such as crypto and tech stocks, and make the dollar stronger, so the Fed’s tone matters as much as the decision itself.
- A calm, “wait and see” message could ease pressure on crypto prices.
- A clear hint at a December hike could weigh on Bitcoin and altcoins again.
Big moves are common in the hours after a Fed decision. Our FOMC & Crypto dashboard shows what Bitcoin did around every Fed decision since 2019, including the typical path in the days before and after.
Why it matters
The Fed’s rate is the price of money for the whole economy: mortgages, credit cards, business loans and, indirectly, the appetite for risky investments like crypto. After the turn to hikes in September, today’s meeting is less about the decision and more about the message for the rest of the year.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
