FOMC & Crypto

Eight times a year the US Federal Reserve decides the price of money. We measured what Bitcoin did around every one of those decisions since 2019 — 64 in all — from the week before to the month after.

Next FOMC decision9 Dec 2026Statement at 2:00 pm New York time, press conference at 2:30 pm

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With new projections (the “dot plot”). Chair: Warsh.

Fed rate today3.75–4.00%Last change: +0.25 on 16 Sept 2026

Decision days vs normal days2.7% vs 2.1%Average Bitcoin move (up or down) on a decision day vs any day since 2019

Up the day after36 of 64Meetings after which Bitcoin was higher the next day (56%)

First 4 hours3.6%Average gap between Bitcoin’s high and low in the 4 hours after the statement

Next meetings:27 Jan 202717 Mar 2027★28 Apr 20279 Jun 2027★28 Jul 202715 Sept 2027★27 Oct 2027

The Fed rate and the Bitcoin price

Every dot is a decision: hikes, cuts and holds. A ring marks the two emergency cuts of March 2020. Hover or tap a dot for the details.

Bitcoin (right scale, log)Fed rate, top of the range (left scale)

The typical path around a meeting

Bitcoin’s median price from 10 days before to 10 days after a decision, compared with the day before (day −1 = 0%). Day 0 is the decision day; the statement comes out in the evening, European time.

All meetings (64)Hikes (12)Cuts (11)Holds (41)

By decision and by period

Median Bitcoin change. The week before is measured up to the day before the decision; everything after is measured from the day before, so it includes the reaction to the statement.

	Meetings	Week before	Decision day	Next day	1 week after	1 month after	Up after 1 week
All meetings	64	+1.3%	+0.4%	+0.3%	+0.9%	+3.1%	54%
Hikes	12	+0.2%	+0.9%	+0.6%	−0.6%	−4.0%	42%
Cuts	11	+4.1%	−0.4%	−0.2%	−3.0%	−2.4%	36%
Holds	41	+0.4%	+0.4%	+0.5%	+2.4%	+7.0%	63%
By period of Fed policy
2019: insurance cuts	9	+1.2%	+0.4%	+0.3%	+0.4%	+11.9%	56%
2020–21: zero rates and QE	16	+4.2%	+1.7%	+1.7%	+3.6%	+7.1%	69%
2022–23: fastest hikes in 40 years	13	−1.0%	+0.4%	+0.5%	−0.3%	−3.4%	38%
2023–24: higher for longer	8	−2.1%	+0.5%	−0.3%	+1.9%	+6.2%	63%
2024–26: cuts	16	+2.1%	0.0%	0.0%	−2.7%	−2.0%	44%
2026: hikes return	2	−3.1%	+0.6%	−1.4%	+11.6%	+7.8%	100%

A median is the middle value: half the meetings did better, half did worse. It isn’t pulled around by one huge move the way an average is.

Every decision since 2019

Click a row to see Bitcoin hour by hour, from a day before the statement to two days after.

Date	Decision	Fed rate after	BTC at statement	Week before	2 hours after	Next day	1 week after	1 month after
28 Oct 2026	Hold	3.75–4.00%	$80,748	−2.6%	+0.9%	−3.7%	–	–
Hold in a 10–2 vote; Cook and Hammack wanted another quarter-point hike. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.2% to +1.2% 24 hours after+0.1% Decision day (close)+0.6%
16 Sept 2026	Hike +0.25	3.75–4.00%	$75,689	−3.6%	+0.4%	+1.0%	+11.6%	+7.8%
First hike since 2023, as energy prices keep inflation high. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.0% to +1.1% 24 hours after+1.2% Decision day (close)+0.7%
29 Jul 2026	Hold	3.50–3.75%	$64,191	−4.0%	−1.1%	+1.3%	+1.1%	+21.9%
Rates unchanged. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.6% to +0.6% 24 hours after+1.0% Decision day (close)+0.1%
17 Jun 2026	Hold	3.50–3.75%	$66,054	+6.4%	−2.7%	−4.1%	−7.0%	−2.6%
First meeting with Kevin Warsh as chair. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−3.1% to 0.0% 24 hours after−5.4% Decision day (close)−1.8%
29 Apr 2026	Hold	3.50–3.75%	$76,146	0.0%	−0.8%	−0.1%	+6.6%	−3.9%
Powell’s last meeting as chair. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.6% to +0.1% 24 hours after+0.1% Decision day (close)−0.8%
18 Mar 2026	Hold	3.50–3.75%	$71,599	+5.7%	−0.7%	−5.4%	−3.5%	+4.3%
Rates unchanged. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.6% to +0.6% 24 hours after−2.4% Decision day (close)−3.6%
28 Jan 2026	Hold	3.50–3.75%	$89,414	+0.9%	−0.5%	−5.1%	−18.0%	−26.1%
Pause after three cuts. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.8% to +0.4% 24 hours after−6.8% Decision day (close)+0.1%
10 Dec 2025	Cut −0.25	3.50–3.75%	$92,503	+1.5%	0.0%	−0.2%	−7.1%	−2.4%
Third cut in a row. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.8% to +2.2% 24 hours after−1.9% Decision day (close)−0.7%
29 Oct 2025	Cut −0.25	3.75–4.00%	$111,883	+4.1%	−1.1%	−4.1%	−8.0%	−19.5%
Balance-sheet shrinking to end on 1 December; Powell: a December cut is “not a foregone conclusion”. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−2.6% to +0.1% 24 hours after−3.9% Decision day (close)−2.6%
17 Sept 2025	Cut −0.25	4.00–4.25%	$115,587	+4.8%	+0.1%	+0.3%	−3.0%	−8.9%
First cut of 2025. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.7% to +0.7% 24 hours after+1.8% Decision day (close)−0.3%
30 Jul 2025	Hold	4.25–4.50%	$117,803	−1.7%	−0.8%	−1.8%	−2.5%	−8.1%
Hold; two governors vote for a cut. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.8% to +0.2% 24 hours after−0.1% Decision day (close)−0.1%
18 Jun 2025	Hold	4.25–4.50%	$104,357	−5.1%	−0.5%	+0.1%	+2.6%	+12.8%
Hold; dot plot still shows two cuts in 2025. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.8% to +0.8% 24 hours after+0.2% Decision day (close)+0.3%
7 May 2025	Hold	4.25–4.50%	$96,317	+2.7%	−0.1%	+6.7%	+7.0%	+7.8%
Hold amid uncertainty over new US tariffs. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.5% to +1.1% 24 hours after+4.9% Decision day (close)+0.2%
19 Mar 2025	Hold	4.25–4.50%	$84,242	−0.2%	+1.5%	+1.8%	+5.1%	+2.1%
Balance-sheet shrinking slowed sharply from April. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.8% to +2.1% 24 hours after−0.2% Decision day (close)+5.0%
29 Jan 2025	Hold	4.25–4.50%	$102,847	−4.5%	+1.3%	+3.4%	−4.7%	−16.7%
Pause after three cuts. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.4% to +1.9% 24 hours after+2.7% Decision day (close)+2.3%
18 Dec 2024	Cut −0.25	4.25–4.50%	$104,775	+9.8%	−3.9%	−8.1%	−6.4%	−1.6%
“Hawkish cut”: dot plot shows only two cuts in 2025. Powell: the Fed is not allowed to own Bitcoin. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−4.5% to 0.0% 24 hours after−5.7% Decision day (close)−5.7%
7 Nov 2024	Cut −0.25	4.50–4.75%	$76,677	+4.6%	−0.1%	+1.2%	+15.4%	+32.1%
Second cut, two days after the US election. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.5% to +0.4% 24 hours after+0.3% Decision day (close)+0.4%
18 Sept 2024	Cut −0.50	4.75–5.00%	$60,022	+4.6%	+0.1%	+4.4%	+4.7%	+13.4%
First cut since 2020, and a bigger 0.50 step. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.9% to +2.2% 24 hours after+6.2% Decision day (close)+2.2%
31 Jul 2024	Hold	5.25–5.50%	$66,664	+0.4%	−2.2%	−1.3%	−16.9%	−10.7%
Powell says a September cut could be on the table. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−3.2% to +0.1% 24 hours after−5.3% Decision day (close)−2.4%
12 Jun 2024	Hold	5.25–5.50%	$69,804	−4.6%	−3.3%	−0.9%	−3.5%	−14.0%
Dot plot cut to a single 2024 cut. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−3.7% to 0.0% 24 hours after−4.2% Decision day (close)+1.4%
1 May 2024	Hold	5.25–5.50%	$57,353	−8.7%	−0.8%	−2.5%	+0.9%	+11.3%
Balance-sheet shrinking slowed from June. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.2% to +3.6% 24 hours after+3.2% Decision day (close)−3.9%
20 Mar 2024	Hold	5.25–5.50%	$64,108	−13.4%	+2.6%	+5.8%	+12.2%	+3.1%
Three cuts still pencilled in for 2024. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.3% to +6.0% 24 hours after+2.5% Decision day (close)+9.7%
31 Jan 2024	Hold	5.25–5.50%	$43,496	+7.8%	−2.2%	+0.3%	+3.2%	+45.4%
Powell says a March cut is unlikely. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−2.8% to +0.1% 24 hours after−1.5% Decision day (close)−0.9%
13 Dec 2023	Hold	5.25–5.50%	$42,124	−6.0%	+1.8%	+3.8%	+5.3%	+3.4%
The pivot: dot plot shows three cuts in 2024. Statement Range in the first 4 hours0.0% to +3.2% 24 hours after+1.7% Decision day (close)+3.5%
1 Nov 2023	Hold	5.25–5.50%	$34,523	+2.3%	+0.2%	+0.8%	+2.8%	+11.6%
Second pause in a row. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.2% to +3.3% 24 hours after+0.8% Decision day (close)+2.2%
20 Sept 2023	Hold	5.25–5.50%	$27,202	+5.3%	−1.0%	−2.4%	−3.2%	+9.1%
“Higher for longer”: fewer cuts in the dot plot. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.5% to +0.4% 24 hours after−2.0% Decision day (close)−0.3%
26 Jul 2023	Hike +0.25	5.25–5.50%	$29,275	−2.1%	+0.4%	−0.1%	−0.3%	−10.9%
Last hike of the cycle: 5.25–5.50%, the highest in 22 years. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.3% to +1.4% 24 hours after−0.2% Decision day (close)+0.4%
14 Jun 2023	Hold	5.00–5.25%	$26,017	−4.8%	−0.6%	−1.3%	+15.8%	+17.0%
First pause after 10 hikes in a row. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−4.6% to +0.3% 24 hours after−3.5% Decision day (close)−3.1%
3 May 2023	Hike +0.25	5.00–5.25%	$28,580	+1.3%	−0.9%	+0.6%	−3.7%	−5.0%
Signals a possible pause. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.3% to +1.7% 24 hours after+1.0% Decision day (close)+1.1%
22 Mar 2023	Hike +0.25	4.75–5.00%	$28,576	+13.9%	−6.4%	+0.6%	+0.6%	−3.2%
Hike despite the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−6.6% to +1.3% 24 hours after−0.8% Decision day (close)−3.1%
1 Feb 2023	Hike +0.25	4.50–4.75%	$23,078	+2.2%	+2.2%	+1.4%	−0.9%	−3.4%
Back to 0.25 steps; Powell notes “disinflation” has started. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.4% to +3.2% 24 hours after+4.3% Decision day (close)+2.5%
14 Dec 2022	Hike +0.50	4.25–4.50%	$18,230	+4.0%	−2.5%	−2.3%	−5.4%	+12.0%
Smaller 0.50 step. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−3.1% to +0.6% 24 hours after−4.6% Decision day (close)−0.7%
2 Nov 2022	Hike +0.75	3.75–4.00%	$20,438	+1.9%	−0.9%	−1.3%	−22.5%	−16.6%
Fourth 0.75 hike; Powell says rates will go higher than expected. FTX collapsed a week later. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.8% to +1.8% 24 hours after−1.0% Decision day (close)−1.6%
21 Sept 2022	Hike +0.75	3.00–3.25%	$19,853	−6.9%	−4.3%	+2.8%	+2.8%	+1.5%
Third 0.75 hike; dot plot signals more. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−7.6% to +0.5% 24 hours after−4.0% Decision day (close)−1.8%
27 Jul 2022	Hike +0.75	2.25–2.50%	$21,630	−9.2%	+5.3%	+12.3%	+7.6%	−4.6%
Second 0.75 hike in a row. Statement Range in the first 4 hours0.0% to +6.8% 24 hours after+11.0% Decision day (close)+8.0%
15 Jun 2022	Hike +0.75	1.50–1.75%	$21,068	−28.7%	+2.5%	−8.2%	−10.0%	−6.2%
Biggest hike since 1994, days after a hot inflation report. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−4.0% to +6.4% 24 hours after−0.2% Decision day (close)+1.6%
4 May 2022	Hike +0.50	0.75–1.00%	$38,966	−1.0%	+2.3%	−3.1%	−23.3%	−21.3%
Biggest hike since 2000; balance-sheet shrinking (QT) from June. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.0% to +2.8% 24 hours after−5.6% Decision day (close)+5.2%
16 Mar 2022	Hike +0.25	0.25–0.50%	$40,441	+1.6%	+1.1%	+4.1%	+9.0%	+3.1%
First hike since 2018. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−2.7% to +2.6% 24 hours after+0.9% Decision day (close)+4.6%
26 Jan 2022	Hold	0.00–0.25%	$37,991	−12.8%	−2.5%	+0.5%	0.0%	+6.1%
Signals hikes will start soon. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−4.6% to +2.6% 24 hours after−4.7% Decision day (close)−0.3%
15 Dec 2021	Hold	0.00–0.25%	$47,843	−8.1%	+2.9%	+2.3%	+4.3%	−7.5%
Taper doubled; dot plot shows three hikes in 2022. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.6% to +3.5% 24 hours after+0.3% Decision day (close)+4.9%
3 Nov 2021	Hold	0.00–0.25%	$62,519	+4.7%	+0.5%	−2.8%	+2.8%	−15.2%
Taper begins: bond buying cut by $15B a month. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−3.9% to +1.4% 24 hours after−2.6% Decision day (close)−0.4%
22 Sept 2021	Hold	0.00–0.25%	$43,162	−13.6%	+0.6%	+10.3%	+2.1%	+49.1%
Signals that slowing bond buying (the taper) may start soon. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.7% to +2.0% 24 hours after+3.9% Decision day (close)+7.1%
28 Jul 2021	Hold	0.00–0.25%	$38,983	+32.2%	+3.7%	+1.5%	+0.9%	+24.5%
Rates at zero; progress toward slowing bond buying. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.5% to +4.4% 24 hours after+1.6% Decision day (close)+1.5%
16 Jun 2021	Hold	0.00–0.25%	$39,180	+20.7%	−1.3%	−5.8%	−16.5%	−22.2%
Dot plot pulls the first hikes forward to 2023. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−2.2% to +1.3% 24 hours after−3.8% Decision day (close)−5.1%
28 Apr 2021	Hold	0.00–0.25%	$54,900	−2.5%	+1.1%	−2.7%	+4.3%	−35.1%
Powell says it is not yet time to talk about slowing bond buying. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.5% to +2.9% 24 hours after−3.9% Decision day (close)−0.4%
17 Mar 2021	Hold	0.00–0.25%	$55,574	+3.6%	+4.2%	+1.9%	−7.1%	+8.4%
Dot plot still shows no hikes before 2024. Statement Range in the first 4 hours0.0% to +5.7% 24 hours after+6.6% Decision day (close)+3.6%
27 Jan 2021	Hold	0.00–0.25%	$29,754	−9.7%	+6.8%	+2.8%	+15.1%	+42.3%
Rates at zero; bond buying continues. Statement Range in the first 4 hours0.0% to +7.1% 24 hours after+9.9% Decision day (close)−6.6%
16 Dec 2020	Hold	0.00–0.25%	$20,616	+6.0%	+1.0%	+17.4%	+19.7%	+89.7%
Bond buying to continue until “substantial further progress”. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.2% to +4.2% 24 hours after+13.0% Decision day (close)+9.8%
5 Nov 2020	Hold	0.00–0.25%	$14,959	+6.5%	+0.9%	+10.1%	+15.2%	+35.5%
Rates at zero, two days after the US election. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.3% to +4.3% 24 hours after+3.5% Decision day (close)+10.2%
16 Sept 2020	Hold	0.00–0.25%	$11,043	+6.6%	−0.5%	+1.4%	−5.1%	+4.9%
New strategy: inflation may run above 2% for a while; zero rates seen to 2023. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.7% to +0.4% 24 hours after−1.6% Decision day (close)+1.6%
29 Jul 2020	Hold	0.00–0.25%	$11,182	+16.4%	+0.3%	+1.8%	+7.6%	+5.8%
Rates at zero; bond buying continues. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.2% to +1.5% 24 hours after−1.2% Decision day (close)+1.7%
10 Jun 2020	Hold	0.00–0.25%	$9,776	+2.8%	+0.8%	−4.8%	−3.2%	−5.3%
Dot plot shows rates at zero through 2022. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.9% to +2.5% 24 hours after−4.1% Decision day (close)+0.8%
29 Apr 2020	Hold	0.00–0.25%	$8,727	+13.5%	+0.1%	+10.9%	+18.7%	+20.9%
Rates at zero; the Fed pledges to use its full range of tools. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.8% to +2.6% 24 hours after−1.9% Decision day (close)+12.7%
15 Mar 2020Emergency	Cut −1.00	0.00–0.25%	$5,175	−41.6%	+3.4%	−3.6%	+12.1%	+31.6%
Sunday emergency cut to near zero, plus $700B of bond buying (QE). The 18 March meeting was cancelled. Statement Range in the first 4 hours0.0% to +15.7% 24 hours after−5.2% Decision day (close)+3.7%
3 Mar 2020Emergency	Cut −0.50	1.00–1.25%	$8,745	−8.1%	−0.5%	−1.3%	−10.8%	−23.4%
Emergency cut between meetings as COVID-19 spreads. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.3% to +1.7% 24 hours after−0.2% Decision day (close)−0.9%
29 Jan 2020	Hold	1.50–1.75%	$9,355	+7.0%	+0.2%	+1.6%	+2.7%	−7.3%
Hold, with a small technical change to the rate paid on bank reserves. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.6% to +0.8% 24 hours after+1.4% Decision day (close)−0.4%
11 Dec 2019	Hold	1.50–1.75%	$7,181	−0.6%	−0.2%	−0.5%	0.0%	+12.2%
Dot plot shows no change expected in 2020. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.2% to +0.4% 24 hours after+0.4% Decision day (close)−0.8%
30 Oct 2019	Cut −0.25	1.50–1.75%	$9,124	+16.7%	+1.0%	−2.4%	−0.7%	−17.7%
Third cut; the Fed signals a pause. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.1% to +1.1% 24 hours after+1.6% Decision day (close)−2.4%
18 Sept 2019	Cut −0.25	1.75–2.00%	$10,183	+1.2%	−0.1%	+0.2%	−17.1%	−22.1%
Second cut; officials split on whether more are needed. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.5% to +0.2% 24 hours after−1.5% Decision day (close)−0.4%
31 Jul 2019	Cut −0.25	2.00–2.25%	$10,031	−3.0%	−0.3%	+8.3%	+24.3%	−0.1%
First cut since 2008, called a “mid-cycle adjustment”. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.8% to +0.4% 24 hours after+0.7% Decision day (close)+5.0%
19 Jun 2019	Hold	2.25–2.50%	$9,141	+14.6%	+0.1%	+4.9%	+43.3%	+16.0%
“Patient” dropped; the Fed signals cuts may be coming. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.4% to +1.1% 24 hours after+2.5% Decision day (close)+2.1%
1 May 2019	Hold	2.25–2.50%	$5,353	−4.0%	−0.9%	+2.9%	+11.8%	+60.3%
Powell says low inflation is likely due to temporary factors. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−1.2% to 0.0% 24 hours after+0.7% Decision day (close)+1.0%
20 Mar 2019	Hold	2.25–2.50%	$3,996	+4.1%	+0.4%	−1.0%	+0.4%	+30.3%
Dot plot shows no hikes in 2019; balance-sheet shrinking to end in September. Statement Range in the first 4 hours0.0% to +0.5% 24 hours after−0.8% Decision day (close)+0.4%
30 Jan 2019	Hold	2.25–2.50%	$3,443	−4.4%	−0.3%	+0.3%	−1.0%	+11.9%
The Fed turns “patient” and stops signalling more hikes. Statement Range in the first 4 hours−0.4% to +0.1% 24 hours after−1.2% Decision day (close)+1.1%

“Week before”, “Next day”, “1 week after” and “1 month after” use daily closes (00:00 UTC). “2 hours after” uses the price when the statement came out, so it covers the statement and most of the press conference.

What the FOMC is

The Federal Open Market Committee is the group inside the US Federal Reserve that sets the target for short-term interest rates. It meets eight times a year. At 2:00 pm New York time on the second day it publishes its decision, and the chair takes questions half an hour later.

Hike: money gets more expensive. Usually bad for risky assets like crypto.
Cut: money gets cheaper. Usually good for risky assets.
Hold: no change. The words still matter: what the chair hints about the next meetings.
Dot plot: four times a year each official marks where they expect rates to go. Markets often react more to it than to the decision.

How to read this page

Most decisions are expected weeks in advance, so the price often moves before the meeting, not after it. What moves Bitcoin on the day is the surprise: a bigger step than expected, or a chair who sounds tougher (“hawkish”) or softer (“dovish”) than markets hoped.

64 meetings is a small sample, and other news often lands in the same days (an inflation report, an exchange collapse, an election). These are patterns from the past, not predictions. Not financial advice. Read more in The FOMO trap and theFear & Greed Index.

Fed decisions: Federal Reserve, checked against FRED. Bitcoin: CoinMarketCap (daily close, USD) and Coinbase (hourly, BTC-USD). Updated after every meeting.